Unlocking marketing effectiveness in the digital age

Author, speaker, and econometrician Les Binet has been identifying new ways to
measure the effects of advertising on the bottom line for nearly four decades. He’s
won more IPA Advertising Effectiveness Awards than anyone else in the history of the
competition.

From my early days as an
econometrician
to my current role as an independent consultant, I’ve had a front-row seat to the
evolution of marketing measurement. And let me tell you, it’s been quite a ride.

I’ve seen trends come and go — and pendulums swing back and forth. In the nascent days
of the internet, a seemingly revolutionary concept emerged: online attribution.
Marketers could track clicks on banner ads. This approach, while appearing novel,
mirrored age-old direct response methods. Think coupon responses in print advertising
from the early 1900s.

The allure of counting clicks, while powerful, often led marketers down a path of
misattribution. Not every click translated to a genuine, incremental conversion. This
early focus on direct response, while providing some data, often obscured
the broader picture of marketing’s impact.

But amidst this, there have been genuine breakthroughs. For me, one such epiphany
occurred while working on an econometric model for an insurance company. We combined
direct attribution, experiments, and
marketing mix modelling
— a
trifecta
that allowed us to predict call centre volumes with astonishing accuracy, within 1%,
month after month. This experience was the genesis of my understanding
of the long and the short of it, and the importance of a holistic approach to measurement.

Today, I’m heartened to see tools like
Google’s Meridian
embracing this approach. This is precisely the kind of innovation we need to move the
industry forward.

Econometrics: More than just marketing mix modelling

Many marketers know econometrics as
marketing mix modelling
(MMM), but it’s so much more than that. Econometrics is a powerful discipline with
applications far beyond marketing, and it has become hyper-relevant again in 2025
because it allows us to understand the impact of various factors on business outcomes.

It helps us answer the questions we’re all looking at in today’s fast-paced industry,
like: What is the impact of our TV advertising on sales? How does
pricing affect demand? What is the role of seasonality in our business?

MMMs provide a powerful lens for understanding the overall impact of your marketing mix
on business outcomes. It helps you see the bigger picture, revealing how different
channels work together and interact over time. But MMM alone can sometimes lack the
granularity to pinpoint the precise impact of individual actions.

That’s where
incremental experiments
shine. By systematically testing different approaches, you gain invaluable insights into
cause and effect. Experiments allow you to isolate variables and confidently attribute
results to specific changes in your strategy. However, experiments can be costly and
time-consuming, and they may not always be feasible for every marketing activity.

Direct attribution, with its focus on clicks, conversions, and last-touchpoints, offers
a readily available and easily digestible view of performance. While valuable for
optimising specific campaigns, it can fall short in capturing the entire customer
journey — and the influence of various touchpoints that contribute to a conversion.

This is precisely why the modern
measurement framework of MMM, experiments, and attribution
is so powerful. By combining these methodologies, you can overcome the limitations of
each individual approach and gain a truly comprehensive understanding of your marketing
effectiveness.

Beyond big data: The power of long data and Google Trends

This modern measurement framework can give you vast amounts of data, but the pursuit of
“big data” can sometimes overlook a more valuable resource: long data. Instead of simply
accumulating vast quantities of short-term information, marketers also need data that
reveals long-term trends.

One area where econometrics has proven particularly insightful is in the analysis of
share of search; the relationship between organic search queries and market share. There is a strong
correlation: movements in share of search often precede movements in market share. This
means that share of search can be a powerful indicator of brand health and future market
performance.

Google Trends provides a fantastic tool for tracking share of search over time. It
offers access to weekly search volumes dating back to 2004, acting as a barometer of
consumer interest.

By embracing long data, marketers can move beyond short-term metrics and gain a more
profound understanding of the evolving forces shaping consumer behaviour.

Les Binet speaking at the Think 2025 event in Stockholm.

The rise of AI: From static to dynamic measurement

Building models and gathering data is only half the battle, however. Rigorous testing is
paramount. It’s not enough to create a model that looks good on paper; you need to
challenge it, probe for weaknesses, and subject it to a battery of statistical tests.
This process can be tedious and demanding, but it’s the only way to ensure the
robustness and reliability of your models.

This is where AI comes in. Imagine a world where measurement models are updated
frequently, tested dynamically, and forecasts are generated and compared against
actual outcomes in real-time. This approach allows us to constantly refine our
strategies and ensure that campaigns remain effective in a rapidly changing market.

AI enables a shift from static, annual analyses to a more agile, responsive approach.
Marketers can now make data-driven decisions with greater confidence, knowing that their
insights are always up-to-date. By embracing AI and the power of live econometrics,
marketers can unlock new levels of efficiency and effectiveness, driving sustainable
growth in the years to come.

My insights underscore a timeless truth in marketing: success hinges on understanding
how marketing truly works. Measurement is not merely about collecting data; it’s
about using that data to inform strategic decisions and drive profitable growth. By
embracing a multi-faceted approach that considers both short and long-term effects,
marketers can gain a more complete picture of their impact.